How UNHCR is Using Social Media to Predict Asylum Applications from Venezuela

Andres Harper, UNHCR at the re;publica conference in may 2019 in Berlin about Predective Anallytics in Humanitarian Response

Predicting future trends of asylum applications of Venezuelans by analysing social media, particularly Twitter, and using machine learning to assess intentions to flee.

Refugees they never want to leave their homes unless they have to.

How UNHCR is Using Social Media to Predict Asylum Applications from Venezuela

Since currently I am located in Colombia, I want to share a very interesting sight from Andrew Harper, UNHCR’s Director of Program Support & Management who gave a speech in May 2019, at the re:publica conference in Berlin about the use of predictive analytics in humanitarian crises.

Besides two case studies about:

Using data to predict the likelihood and number of Syrian refugees moving across the Mediterranean Sea

and

Predicting and analysing population movements from Somalia by looking at a combination of weather data, market data and satellite images.

He also gives us an overview about a third case:

Predicting future trends of asylum applications of Venezuelans by analysing social media, particularly Twitter, and using machine learning to assess intentions to flee.

He doesn’t go into a lot of details regarding the use of social media data – it basically looks like a rather straightforward frequency analysis for certain terms, such as “flee” – but I still found it interesting. The talk is 27 minutes long, with the Venezuela case study starting at 11:40.

Andrew Harper is the Director of the Division of Programme Support & Management with the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Geneva. Prior to his current tasks, he led the Innovation Service in UNHCR and was leading and coordinating the international response to the Syrian Crisis in Jordan. Some of the main achievements included responding to, at the time, the largest refugee crisis in the world, the establishment of the Zaatari and Azraq refugee camps, introducing biometric registration and the world’s largest biometric based refugee cash assistance programme. Before his assignment to Jordan, Andrew was Head of Desk for UNHCR Headquarters in Geneva, covering the Iraq Situation for six years as well as being the Emergency Focal Point for the Middle East and North Africa region for the Libyan Crisis in 2011. In 2013 he received the ANZAC Peace Prize and the Sir Ron Wilson Human Rights Award. Andrew is married with three young daughters.